Bull Market Ending With Balance Sheet Unwind?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The central banks are about to start collectively shrinking their balance sheets. It’s the top story for the second half of 2017 and 2018 because this bull market in stocks has been pushed higher by central bank asset buying. The chart below shows how global quantitative easing pushed the market…CONTINUE READING

ECB Bond Purchase Details Revealed

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The Fed’s quantitative easing program is relatively plain vanilla compared to what other central banks are doing. That’s a remarkable statement as expanding its balance sheet is a new phenomenon. If you would have discussed the idea of the Fed’s balance sheet being $4.5 trillion, filled with treasuries and mortgage…CONTINUE READING

When Is The Next Recession?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The latest economic recovery hasn’t been as strong as previous ones because of deceleration in productivity and the labor force population growth. This is why some of the economic indicators which had worked in the past haven’t done well in this cycle. You can argue that looking at consistently positive…CONTINUE READING

Is A Central Bank Balance Sheet Unwind Possible?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The 2nd half of 2017 and 2018 will be pivotal moments for monetary policy. Global central banks have bought assets to the tune of trillions of dollars in the past few years, known as quantitative easing. Central bankers are providing guidance for future policy which entails shrinking their balance sheets…CONTINUE READING

U.S. Shale vs. OPEC Oil Price War: Who Will Win?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes One of the biggest geopolitical struggles is over the price of oil. Unlike other economic wars like the global currency war where countries try to devalue their own currency to boost exports, the oil price war is between governments and private corporations. It is between the OPEC oil cartel and…CONTINUE READING

Where Are We In The Debt Cycle?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes There is never a clear answer as to where the economy is in the business cycle. That’s what makes it so interesting to discuss and profitable to make money on if your timing is correct. Not everyone is a speculator in stocks who will take high leveraged bets on the…CONTINUE READING

Are Bitcoin & Cryptocurrencies A Buy Or Sell?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes Bitcoin has become more popular in the past few weeks as the price has risen. As you can see from the Alexa chart below, the traffic to coindesk.com, a website which has information about bitcoin, as skyrocketed. CNBC has been covering it more lately. This likely means many people are…CONTINUE READING

Return on Equity (ROE) Hits Record Low

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Reading Time: 4 minutes Speculation In Stocks With interest rates falling, speculation into anything which promises a high return is in vogue. The Trump Trade promised a higher yield environment, but that ended in early March. The 10-year yield has fallen from 2.64% to 2.16%. Even at the recent peak in yields, interest rates…CONTINUE READING

Net Debt Is Increasing Faster Than EBITDA

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The drug Wall Street is addicted to is debt. Like a drug addict, Wall Street needs an intervention to solve this problem. Usually interventions occur in the form of a deleveraging which is caused by an increase in default rates and rate hikes by the Fed. Although the Fed delayed…CONTINUE READING

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