Monthly Archives: August, 2017

Is Canada In A Housing Bubble?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The Canadian economy was impacted by the crash in oil prices in 2014 and 2015. Canadian oil sands have a high break even cost which means oil prices per barrel must be above $60, according to some estimates, for the firms to make a profit. As you can see in…CONTINUE READING

Is There Downside Risk For Stocks & Bonds In Q4 2017?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes In the next 18 months, central banks will begin to peel back their expansionary policies to see what the underbelly of the economy looks like. It’s an interesting thought experiment to figure out what this trillions in asset buying did because in theory a reversal of the programs would do…CONTINUE READING

Top Risks To The Stock Market

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Reading Time: 4 minutes Whether you’re bullish or bearish, you need to be cognizant of where you might be wrong. In the bear case, the risks would be to the upside. Since practically everyone in the mainstream is convinced that nothing can go wrong, we’ll review the risks to the downside. The biggest risk…CONTINUE READING

Long-Term Inflation Pressures

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Reading Time: 4 minutes The Federal Reserve makes policy based on inflation, as measured by the CPI, since price stability is one of its mandates. The Fed has a goal of keeping inflation at 2% which usually means it wants higher inflation. Lately inflation, as measured by the CPI, has been subdued. The mistake…CONTINUE READING

Is The Federal Reserve Apolitical?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes The Federal Reserve is a somewhat independent organization from the government which sets monetary policy. In theory, its goal is to be apolitical, however the structure with which it interacts with government makes that problematic. The president appoints Fed governors and the Fed chairperson. Given this structure, it’s difficult for…CONTINUE READING

What Is The Leading Economic Indicator Signaling?

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Reading Time: 4 minutes In this article, we’ll review some trends which appear to be reaching extreme points. The goal of this article isn’t to recommend taking the other side of the trade. Instead it’s to explain what’s happening. There’s an interesting explanation for why markets act in unusual ways. The first chart shows…CONTINUE READING

Is US Housing In A Bubble, Again?

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Reading Time: 5 minutes There is a lot of chatter about bubbles in the economy as recency bias takes hold. Recency bias is when investors think recent market action will repeat. In other words, extrapolating recent events indefinitely, and disregarding the importance of history. An example would be if a company beat estimated analyst…CONTINUE READING

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